Home Prices at Peak, Gains Expected to Slow in 2014

CF Funding is pleased to share with homebuyers that home prices in the U.S. are at their peak, according to property analysts, and further increases are expected to be more subtle. Many homeowners have benefited from rising home prices in recent years, as they were able to regain the equity in their homes, allowing them to refinance or remodel. However, many counties have reached new home price peaks over the past few years, some now higher than pre-recession levels. A few counties that have reached price peaks include San Francisco County, CA, Travis County, TX, and Jefferson County, CO, as mentioned in a Reuters Press Release on Thursday.

Median home prices are up 11 percent from a year ago, and are now at their highest level since December 2008. On Wednesday, CF Funding shared that “Home price gains were high in Chicago, with a year-over-year gain of 11.5 percent. Price gains were also high in Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, Minneapolis, and New York.” Luckily for homebuyers, interest rates remain lower than expected as the Federal Reserve plans to keep interest rates below historic averages for awhile.

 The median sales price of residential properties in the U.S. reached $172,000 in April, which is the largest year-over-year increase “since median prices bottomed out in March 2012,” according to Realty Trac. Vice President Daren Blomquist said median home prices are still 28 percent lower than pre-recession peaks of $237,537, seen in August 2006. However, “There are a surprising number of markets… where median home prices have surpassed their previous peaks since the Great Recession ended in June 2009.” This “surprising number” of markets is about 19 percent of major counties in the U.S. CF Funding is happy to see homeowners regaining equity across the country.

Some markets have seen home prices slow down over the past year, such as Phoenix, AZ, which had a 9 percent home price appreciation in April 2014 versus a 30 percent annual appreciation in April 2013. Tampa, FL saw a 5 percent appreciation over the past year versus a 19 percent annual appreciation in April 2013. Jacksonville, FL had only 4 percent appreciation in April 2014 versus a 17 percent appreciation in April 2013. This is a clear sign of a slowdown in home prices that will allow homes to become affordable for many Americans this year. CF Funding will provide many homebuyers with the opportunity to fund their first home this year as the lender provides home mortgages in IL, CO, TN, CA, and FL.

Consumer Confidence Rises in May

CF Funding is pleased to share that consumer confidence has risen in May to a score of 83.0. The Consumer Confidence Index, provided by the Conference Board, had decreased in April to 81.7. The index is now at its second-highest reading since 2008, with March of this year slightly higher at a score of 83.9.

The lowest score seen in the Consumer Confidence Index was 25.3 in February of 2009. Consumer confidence has risen significantly since then, but is not yet at its peak  pre-recession levels. In 1985, the index was at a score of 100. Consumer confidence in regards to present-day conditions improved in May, with those stating business conditions as “bad” declining from 24.8 to 24.1 percent. Those who believe jobs are “plentiful” rose about 1 percent from 13.0 to 14.1, and those who believe jobs are “hard to get” decreased from 32.8 to 32.3 percent.

Consumer expectations increased in May, with those expecting business conditions to improve (over the next 6 months) increasing from 17.2 to 17.5 percent. Those expecting business conditions to worsen decreased from 10.5 to 10.2 percent. Confidence in the labor market improved slightly, with those expecting more jobs increasing from 14.7 to 15.4 percent, and those expecting their incomes to grow increasing from 16.8 to 18.3 percent. According to Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, “Consumers assessed current conditions, in particular the labor market, more favorably. Expectations regarding the short-term outlook for the economy, jobs, and personal finances were also more upbeat. In fact, the percentage of consumers expecting their incomes to grow over the next six months is the highest since December 2007 (20.2 percent).”

Home prices rose slowly in March, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index released this week. The index for March revealed a 12.4 percent increase in home prices in comparison to February’s 12.9 percent. Home price gains were high in Chicago, with a year-over-year gain of 11.5 percent. Price gains were also high in Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, Minneapolis, and New York. Las Vegas had one of the highest annual returns at about 21 percent. Only two cities in the index have set record highs since the housing crisis: Dallas, TX and Denver, CO. CF Funding is happy to be a part of the growing housing industry in these cities as the lender is licensed in both Texas and Colorado.

For more updates on home prices, mortgage rates, and housing industry news, follow CF Funding on Facebook at www.facebook.com/cffundingcorp or visit the lender’s news feed at www.cffunding.com/index.php/news.

New Home Sales Up, Busy Season Ahead for Housing

Data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development revealed that new residential home sales in April were up 6.4 percent from the revised March estimate of 407,000. Sales reached a total of 433,000, at a median sales price of $275,800. CFFunding is pleased to see another sign of economic recovery as this increase shows improvement in the housing industry.

The New Residential Sales report also shared revisions dating back to January 2012, when new home sales were at a rate of 335,000. New home sales saw large improvements from April 2012 to April 2013 with a jump from 354,000 to 452,000, and have dipped about 4.2 percent over the past year to reach the present estimate of 433,000. According to Wall Street Journal, “Sales of new single-family houses represent a fraction of homes purchased in the U.S. and can be subject to large revisions… but the report provides a more timely reading of the housing market than other measures because it tallies sales at the moment a contract is signed rather than at its closing.”

Many economists expect a busy spring and summer season for the housing industry, as new home construction increased for the third month in a row this April. Both multifamily and single-family construction increased, according to the Commerce Department. Stocks also increased for houses on the market in April, hitting a 3.5 year high, according to Lucia Mutikani. Although the outlook is positive, the industry is still considered to be in a “slump,” as high home prices, low inventory, and the harsh winter weather have had a negative effect over the past year. CF Funding hopes for a full recovery as the Federal Reserve plans to assist the housing industry by maintaining low interest rates.

Current mortgage rates remain unchanged, with the most prevalently quoted 30 year fixed rate (best-execution) at about 4.125-4.25 percent.  FHA and VA loans today range on average from 3.75 percent to 4 percent. 15 year fixed rate mortgages are at an average rate of 3.25 to 3.375 percent, and 5 year ARMs range from 3 to 3.5 percent. Homebuyers should keep in mind that interest rates range based on credit and program availability, and rates may change from day to day. Those interested in a purchase or refinance should contact a loans specialist at www.cffunding.com to see which programs and rates are available today.  

Rental Prices Rising as Interest Rates Remain Low

As the weather improves and Spring homebuying season is upon us, many renters are also shopping for new apartments. Unfortunately, rental prices are rising at the fastest pace since the recession, according to the apartment market research company Axiometrics Inc. At the same time, interest rates on a home mortgage are expected to stay low for years, as Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley shared in a speech today. CF Funding predicts these factors will combine to form a boost in housing activity in the coming years.

As the economy has improved and demand for apartments has risen, landlords were able to raise rental rates to an average $1,136.88 in April, which is 3.4 percent higher than in April 2013. Rental prices have seen the biggest spike this year since the recession ended in 2009. In a blog post from April 30^th, Stephanie McCleskey shared that “In Atlanta… only 9% of renters can afford apartments build in the past two years, compared with 22% of renters for units built in the previous cycle,” according to the research company’s affordability scale, which assumes 100 percent of residents can afford the least expensive apartment’s rent per unit.

In an updated blog post, the research company shared today that the apartment market is still strong, however “we still predict that the rate of effective rent growth and occupancy will moderate by the end of the year,” said KC Sanjay.

CF Funding is happy to share that buying a home is still affordable, as interest rates are still near 2014 lows and are expected to stay low. CNN Money shared today that there are three major reasons why the Fed may keep interest rates “below historic averages for the long haul,” based on William Dudley’s speech today. Dudley indicated that the economy is still too weak to raise interest rates, as the Great Recession “scarred households and businesses” and the housing industry faces “several significant headwinds.” Dudley emphasized the issues of mortgage credit availability for those with low credit scores, student loan debt burdens, and housing supply. Dudley also shared that as a large portion of Americans are retiring, the potential for economic growth is smaller than it was in the 1990s.

On a positive note, Dudley expects the federal rate to stay “well below” rates seen in a booming economy, which were as high as 4.25%.  CF Funding will keep readers updated as interest rates may change throughout the year on their website at www.cffunding.com/index.php/mortgagerates. Renters who are considering buying a home may contact the lender at 630-328-8900.

Housing Starts Rise Over 26 Percent

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development has released the new residential construction statistics for April 2014, revealing that privately-owned housing starts increased by 13.2 percent last month, in comparison to the March revised estimate. CF Funding is happy to share that privately-owned housing starts were also up 26.4 percent in comparison to April 2013’s numbers. Increases in housing starts are an indicator of the housing industry’s recovery.

Building permits also rose in April, as privately-owned units were up 8.0 percent from the revised March rate of 1,000,000, reaching a seasonally adjusted rate of 1,080,000. Single-family building permits were up 0.3 percent from the revised March rate of 600,000, reaching 602,000. April marks the third month of permits reaching over 1 million annually.

Single-family housing starts were up 0.8 percent from March to reach 649,000. CF Funding is pleased to see that housing starts improved in every region in April. Privately-owned housing completions were down slightly (3.9 percent) from the revised March estimate. However, the 847,000 privately-owned completions were still 21.2 percent above April 2013’s rate or 699,000.

According to Doug Carroll of USA Today, “Bad weather was fingered as the main explanation for a slowdown in the housing market and the economy during the winter months. April’s housing starts report, along with better employment numbers, could be a sign that the economy will rebound in the second quarter.” CF Funding has explained previously on their blog the effects of bad weather on the housing market.

In other news from the HUD, the average size of newly constructed single-family homes increased during the first quarter of 2014, from 2,656 square feet to 2,736. The median rose from 2,465 square feet to 2,483. As seen in the following chart from the NAHB, there is a clear upward trend of increasing home sizes post-recession.  A new mix of buyers may also be contributing to the upward trend.

The NAHB says the recent rise is “consistent with the historical pattern coming out of recessions… home sizes fall into the recession as some homebuyers cut back, and then sizes rise as high-end homebuyers, who face fewer credit constraints, return to the housing market in relatively greater proportions.” CF Funding has noticed this trend as the lender finances jumbo home loans, construction loans, and second home purchases. The lender recently shared that second home purchases are increasing as the housing industry improves and a rise in home equity allows many homeowners to complete a cash-out refinance or second mortgage.

For more housing industry updates, follow CF Funding on Facebook at www.facebook.com/cffundingcorp.